What is more important, the question or the answer?

"The climate bill has finally come due. Who will pay? Right now, it is being paid by the smallest and most vulnerable" - Baron Waqa, Ex-President of Nauru

Climate change has many sceptics across the planet, but one aspect of the issue, which is undeniably true, is global warming. Over the past few years, an amounting pile of evidence has been generated proving the earth is gradually warming.

Figure 1: Cartoon questioning when the world will have a legally binding climate change agreement - Source: KAL

The Paris Agreement

On the 22nd of April 2016 (Which funnily enough happens to be my birthday), a massive step was finally taken towards reducing global warming and its obvious implications, known as the Paris Agreement. It is an UN sanctioned agreement dealing with greenhouse gas emissions, mitigation, adaptation and finance of climate change.

Figure 2: Collection of newspaper headlines highlighting the urgency of vulnerable nations

One major aspects of the accord, revolved around the decision to aspire to reduce global warming to 1.5°^c or 2.0°^c, with the latter being the final agreement. This decision caused great controversy and uproar amongst the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), with them dubbing anything below 2.0°^c “wholly inadequate”, further vexing the up-hill struggle these nations face. AOSIS have been long term advocates of  "1.5 To Stay Alive" movement as it represents the level of global warming beyond which many of AOSIS nations will be vulnerable and overwhelmed by severe climate impacts.

Figure 3: GIF displaying how global temperatures have increased monthly from 1850-2016, culminating with 2016 being the hottest year in history.

Many scientists question the aggressiveness and ambition of the Paris accord, as forecasted global temperatures don't show a prosperous future for many nations.  Figure 3 shows between January and March 2016, the average global temperature change was 1.48°^c almost meeting the global warming threshold of 1.5°^c, providing another stark reminder that we are much closer to 1.5°c threshold than perhaps many people think.

Figure 4: Schematic showing how far we are from the 1.5°^c threshold on different paths - Source (Climate Central)

Now you may question what is the difference between 1.5°^c and 2.0°^c? Let me explain..

While our dearest mother earth is extremely resilient, it is also very fragile. The small increase of 0.5°^c in global mean temperature would have a gargantuan effect on small island states, causing a substantial decrease in water availability, an increase in regional dry spells and severe degradation to virtually all tropical coral reefs due to temperature induced bleaching. Tropical regions would also experience a considerable decrease in crop yields and sea level rise would be unprecedented, with a 2.0°^c scenario showing a predicted sea level rise of 30% greater than a 1.5°^c scenario.

In my own opinion, I believe the Paris agreement was a true landmark climate accord, exceeding the expectations of many, whilst recognising crucial long term climate goals, kick-starting renewed climate bureaucracy and inspiring a generation of climate activists. My following blog posts will talk about the causes of global sea level rise.

As Waqa said, the smallest and most vulnerable have been hit hardest, yet they have shown great resolve in face of adversity. Through the #HaveYourSei campaign, Pacific islanders show how a torpid approach to climate change exacerbates the threat. I feel it's imperative we support the Pacific climate warriors by signing the declaration!

Video 1: Pacific Islanders explaining the #HaveYourSei and why they need strong climate action!

The Pacific have asked the questions; they are now waiting for the world to answer. 

#HaveYourSei

Wells