Forecast = Extreme?

"The record-breaking extreme weather events causing chaos across the globe should be a wake-up call" - Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UNFCC

I'm not sure about you, but I always complain about the weather in London, but i've come to realise I don't really have much to complain about. One of the main problems of climate change in the Pacific is extreme weather events and storm surges which result in large-scale humanitarian emergencies. 

Figure 1: Cartoon displaying scientist scrambling to find solutions and adaptations to extreme weather AKA cyclone Pam in the South Pacific - Source: David Pope

What causes extreme weather in the South Pacific?

The main cause of the variable climate and extreme weather in the South Pacific is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phenomenon. ENSO is the scientific term that describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the Pacific. ENSO has three states, two of which are opposites, "El Niño" and "La Niña".  

Video 1: Explains the effects of ENSO and what causes it 

Intensified ENSO due to global warming has affected the weather in the region dramatically resulting several coinciding processes. Tropical cyclones (TC) generate elevated coastal sea levels through storm surges and high waves.  TCs reportedly account for 76% of natural disasters in the region and the number of very intense cyclones is due to increase in the South Pacific. As a result of the low-lying nature of Pacific Islands, these TCs have catastrophic consequences. 

Figure 2: Tracks of the approximately 2,400 tropical cyclones in the Pacific region in the last 60 years - Source: The World Bank

Figure 3: Flow diagram showing how global warming has caused intensified the impacts of ENSO - Source: Walsh, McInnes, McBride., 2012

Droughts in the region are strongly influenced by La Niña.  Many Pacific Islands are reliant on rainwater for domestic and agricultural use. The lack of water is extremely detrimental to the region affecting many aspects of life.

Examples of extreme weather events in the South Pacific 

Cyclone Pam

Cyclone Pam was the one of the strongest TC to form in the south Pacific Ocean with winds of 250 km/h peaking at 320 km/h. The category five storm hit the region extremely hard causing damage to most islands.

Figure 4: Map showing the path of tropical cyclone Pam - Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica

Figure 5: Damage caused to some Pacific islands - Source: The World Bank

Vanuatu is considered the most at risk nations in the world to natural disasters and was destroyed by cyclone Pam. It affected approximately 250,000 people and reduced economic activity by 111% in the country.

Figure 6: Economic cost of cyclone Pam to Vanuatu - Source: The World Bank

Vanuatu received aid from a number of countries, especially Australia who contributed to help rebuild Vanuatu considerably.

Video 2: News clip displaying the damage done by Cyclone Pam in the Pacific 

2011 Pacific drought

In 2011, the South Pacific experienced a severe drought affecting a number of countries across the region, but none more so than Tuvalu. Tuvalu is fully reliant on rainwater for domestic usage and typically receives 200-400mm of rainfall per month (Quite a lot!). 

Figure 7: Location of Tuvalu - Source: Treehugger

Video 3: News clip displaying the problems of drought and water shortage in Tuvalu

Mitigation techniques

A number of different techniques are used to reduce the impacts on Pacific islands, these include:

Figure 8: Summary of coping strategies to disasters and climate changes, with traditional food security, coping and governance techniques proving to be the most successful - Source: Fletcher et al., 2013


Extreme weather events are completely out of the Pacifics control and I feel more should be done to help the nations prepare for these catastrophes. 

Wells

Ignorance or selfishness?

"And rising sea levels put at risk the very survival of all small island states" - Ban Ki-moon, Ex Secretary-general of the UN

I'm back again, back to further my quest in raising awareness about the Pacific Islands! Today, I thought I'd inform you about how the Pacific compares to other regions in terms of sea level rise (SLR) and also update you on the outcomes of COP23!

Figure 1: Cartoon highlighting the importance of the Paris accord - Source: Adrian Raeside

COP23 - Bonn

COP23 came to an end last week, with numerous positive improvements coming from the climate talks. Key developments include the powering past coal alliance and the America's Pledge. The conference enabled Fiji to create The Ocean Pathway and Local Communities and Indigenous Peoples Platform.  They also introduced Talanoa dialogue to improve the approach to climate bureaucracy.

Video 1: Timoci Naulusala, a year 7 student, speaks about the impacts of climate change on Fijian communities at the opening of COP 23

How does SLR in the Pacific Islands compare to the rest of the world?

The Pacific Islands are home to approximately 2.1 million people, all of which are at risk due to SLR creating an extensive list of problems. It is estimated a sea level rise of 30-50cm would affect 77,018km of shoreline causing $1.4 million in damages per year. 

Figure 2: Table showing the sea level rise for each country in the South Pacific based on the low emission scenario until the turn of the century - Source:  Data consolidated from Pacific Climate Change Science

Figure 3: Mean SLR of various countries and the global mean compared to the mean SLR of the Pacific Islands - Source: Available upon request

Evidently, SLR in the South Pacific is significantly higher than other countries, but The Pacific Islands low elevation exacerbates the problem further. For example, the Marshall Islands has an average elevation of 2.13m, Kiribati has an average elevation of 2m and Tuvalu has average elevation of only 1.83m (I'm taller than that).  SLR and climate change will affect the South Pacific in a number of different ways, including:

• Groundwater intrusions /water shortages
• Extreme weather/storm surges
• Shoreline erosion and degradation
• Environmental change
• Agriculture/food security problems
• Economic costs
• Health impacts

Throughout my following blog posts I will explain the impacts of these implications on the South Pacific Islands. In the meantime, I would highly recommend watching the documentary below!

Video 2: Documentary about Takuu, one of the Mortlock Islands in the South Pacific which is slowly disappearing because of SLR. Filmmaker Briar March offers an insight into the lives of the people whose land is being consumed

Wells

Where is Noah's Ark? We need it

"The sea is certainly common to all" - Plautus 

I have returned to normality from my master's application sabbatical to find UCL ranked 28th in the UK environmental university ranking! Only makes me prouder to study at such a well-rounded institution. In previous post's I explained the causes of sea level rise (SLR) and in this post, I thought I'd put global SLR into perspective.

Figure 1: Statue of Liberty going for a swimming  

Global mean SLR has increased from 2.2 +/- 0.3 mm yr^-1 to 3.3 +/- 0.3mm yr^-1 in 21 years, this increase has had profound effects worldwide. Some countries possess longer coastal lines than others and therefore the potential effects vary between regions.  In the following paragraphs, I will highlight the regional differences in SLR.

Figure 2: An interactive map displaying the length of every countries coastline

Europe

In Europe, approximately 19% of the entire population are estimated to live within 10km of a coastline and 75% of people in the Mediterranean live in coastal areas. By 2100, extreme SLR on European coastlines is projected to reach 57cm under Representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 81 cm under RCP8.5. While mean SLR is expected to be 53cm and 77cm under the same pathways. The Black sea and the Atlantic are thought be worst hit, with towns such as Esbjerg in Denmark experiencing 106cm of SLR.

Figure 3: Absolute sea level rise across Europe between 1992-2014 - Source: European Environment Agency

Figure 4: The effects of 60 meters sea level rise in Europe - Source: Data for Minds

Video 1: Explains what Europe would like if all the ice melted on earth

North America

SLR is becoming an ever-greater problem in North America. SLR in the region of 90cm by 2100 will put the land of 4.2 million people under risk of inundation. While SLR of 180cm will affect 13.1 million people. SLR in the northwest Atlantic is estimated to be 5.3 +/- 2.6 mm/y  which is relatively low compared to the Pacific.

Figure 5: Schematic showing the US population living less than 3.3 feet above sea level - Source: Union of Concerned Scientists

Video 2: Shows how islands in Canada are experiencing very similar effects to those seen in the Pacific in terms of shoreline erosion, SLR and issues surrounding water supply

Figure 6: The effects of 60 meters sea level rise in North America - Source: Data for Minds

South America

Currently only 6% of the South American population live in low-elevation coastal zones, however this is thought to increase dramatically with population growth (Find out more about the effects of population on climate change on my friends blog). Estimates suggest by 2050 8.9 million inhabitants will be effected by inundation, damaging USD819 billion in built capital.  Cities such as Rio and Lima are expected to experience SLR of 14cm. Furthermore, the ice melt in Patagonia is thought to contribute considerable to SLR.

Figure 7: Schematic displaying the cities at risk of sea level rise in South America 

Asia

The effects of SLR in Asia are potentially enormous. Globally, the continent has the highest concentration of people in low lying coastal zones. SLR is very high near the Philippines at approximately 14.7 +/- 4.39 mm/y and Indonesia at  8.3 +/- 1.53 mm/y. 

Video 3: Explains what Asia would look like if all the ice on earth melted

Figure 8:  Schematic displaying the cities at risk of sea level rise in Asia - Source: UN Habitat Global Urban Observatory 2008

Africa

Approximately 56 million people live in low elevation across 320 coastal cities in Africa. A mid-range scenario of 43cm rise by 2100 would flood 16 million people's homes and 10 million people would be forced to migrate causing damages worth $38 billion.

Figure 9: Schematic displaying the cities at risk of sea level rise in Africa - Source: UN Habitat Global Urban Observatory 2008

Video 4: Explains the problems associated with SLR in West Africa

Although SLR is a serious global problem, it is undoubtedly worse in the Pacific, where whole populations and islands will disappear. In my next post, I will explain how the South Pacific compares!

Wells