Its really is hard to imagine

"Climate change, in some regions, has aggravated conflict over scarce land, and could well trigger large scale migration in the decades ahead" - Ban Ki-moon, Ex secretary general of UN 

Its Christmas eve, but I find myself writing about a truly saddening and unsettling issue; climate induced migration. 

Figure 1: Cartoon depicting climate change migration - Source: Chris Madden

The situation in the Pacific has become so extreme in the past decade, many Islanders across the region have been forced into migration to other safer regions. The process remains highly debated, with many islanders preferring to stay and voice their concerns further.

Figure 2: The Carterets people are often referred to as the first climate change refuges 

Pacific migration 

Migration between islands in the Pacific is a long-standing norm, however the idea of forced migration to another country is exacerbated by the strong link between land and culture in Pacific societies.

Some Pacific nations like Kiribati have bought swaths of land in neighbouring less at-risk Pacific nations.  While less at risk Pacific nations claim they would accept migrants from more at risk islands

Australia and New Zealand

The nations are the most developed in Oceania and are the least at risk from climate change induced problems, however they are reluctant to allow Pacific island migration, especially Australia.  While, New Zealand's accountability for "climate refuges" has been tested in court, but rejected.

Figure 3:  A table displaying the number of Pacific immigrants in Australia compared to the population in their own country - Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 

Studies suggest allowing 1% of the Pacific's population to work permanently in Australia would be of greater benefit to the Pacific people by 2040 than all of Australia's aid.

Figure 4: Click the link to view this super cool interactive table about migration of Pacific immigrants in Australia - Source: Berkelmans and Pryke, 2016

Problems with migration

1.  The financial implications of migration are substantial, especially when large numbers of people live in poverty in the Pacific.

2. Changes to culture, tradition and social structure

3. Legal problems - A post on the LSE human rights blog writes about the legal battle climate refuges face

Figure 5: Graph displaying the factors influencing migration after cyclone Pam - Source: Taupo & Noy, 2016   

It's not all bad news!

The island of Niue has a population of 1,500, but an estimated 5,500 Niuean's live in New Zealand and therefore see themselves as the sole trustees of Niue's 'Taoga' tradition.

Warm waters project

Water warms is a project  through which photography is used to investigate the effects of climate change in the Pacific. I feel it's a project which really puts this dilemma into perspective.

Video 1: Displays a number of harrowing images and videos from warm waters to emphasis the extent of the problem to those readers that aren't convinced by its severity 

Wells

Forecast = Extreme?

"The record-breaking extreme weather events causing chaos across the globe should be a wake-up call" - Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UNFCC

I'm not sure about you, but I always complain about the weather in London, but i've come to realise I don't really have much to complain about. One of the main problems of climate change in the Pacific is extreme weather events and storm surges which result in large-scale humanitarian emergencies. 

Figure 1: Cartoon displaying scientist scrambling to find solutions and adaptations to extreme weather AKA cyclone Pam in the South Pacific - Source: David Pope

What causes extreme weather in the South Pacific?

The main cause of the variable climate and extreme weather in the South Pacific is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phenomenon. ENSO is the scientific term that describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the Pacific. ENSO has three states, two of which are opposites, "El Niño" and "La Niña".  

Video 1: Explains the effects of ENSO and what causes it 

Intensified ENSO due to global warming has affected the weather in the region dramatically resulting several coinciding processes. Tropical cyclones (TC) generate elevated coastal sea levels through storm surges and high waves.  TCs reportedly account for 76% of natural disasters in the region and the number of very intense cyclones is due to increase in the South Pacific. As a result of the low-lying nature of Pacific Islands, these TCs have catastrophic consequences. 

Figure 2: Tracks of the approximately 2,400 tropical cyclones in the Pacific region in the last 60 years - Source: The World Bank

Figure 3: Flow diagram showing how global warming has caused intensified the impacts of ENSO - Source: Walsh, McInnes, McBride., 2012

Droughts in the region are strongly influenced by La Niña.  Many Pacific Islands are reliant on rainwater for domestic and agricultural use. The lack of water is extremely detrimental to the region affecting many aspects of life.

Examples of extreme weather events in the South Pacific 

Cyclone Pam

Cyclone Pam was the one of the strongest TC to form in the south Pacific Ocean with winds of 250 km/h peaking at 320 km/h. The category five storm hit the region extremely hard causing damage to most islands.

Figure 4: Map showing the path of tropical cyclone Pam - Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica

Figure 5: Damage caused to some Pacific islands - Source: The World Bank

Vanuatu is considered the most at risk nations in the world to natural disasters and was destroyed by cyclone Pam. It affected approximately 250,000 people and reduced economic activity by 111% in the country.

Figure 6: Economic cost of cyclone Pam to Vanuatu - Source: The World Bank

Vanuatu received aid from a number of countries, especially Australia who contributed to help rebuild Vanuatu considerably.

Video 2: News clip displaying the damage done by Cyclone Pam in the Pacific 

2011 Pacific drought

In 2011, the South Pacific experienced a severe drought affecting a number of countries across the region, but none more so than Tuvalu. Tuvalu is fully reliant on rainwater for domestic usage and typically receives 200-400mm of rainfall per month (Quite a lot!). 

Figure 7: Location of Tuvalu - Source: Treehugger

Video 3: News clip displaying the problems of drought and water shortage in Tuvalu

Mitigation techniques

A number of different techniques are used to reduce the impacts on Pacific islands, these include:

Figure 8: Summary of coping strategies to disasters and climate changes, with traditional food security, coping and governance techniques proving to be the most successful - Source: Fletcher et al., 2013


Extreme weather events are completely out of the Pacifics control and I feel more should be done to help the nations prepare for these catastrophes. 

Wells

Ignorance or selfishness?

"And rising sea levels put at risk the very survival of all small island states" - Ban Ki-moon, Ex Secretary-general of the UN

I'm back again, back to further my quest in raising awareness about the Pacific Islands! Today, I thought I'd inform you about how the Pacific compares to other regions in terms of sea level rise (SLR) and also update you on the outcomes of COP23!

Figure 1: Cartoon highlighting the importance of the Paris accord - Source: Adrian Raeside

COP23 - Bonn

COP23 came to an end last week, with numerous positive improvements coming from the climate talks. Key developments include the powering past coal alliance and the America's Pledge. The conference enabled Fiji to create The Ocean Pathway and Local Communities and Indigenous Peoples Platform.  They also introduced Talanoa dialogue to improve the approach to climate bureaucracy.

Video 1: Timoci Naulusala, a year 7 student, speaks about the impacts of climate change on Fijian communities at the opening of COP 23

How does SLR in the Pacific Islands compare to the rest of the world?

The Pacific Islands are home to approximately 2.1 million people, all of which are at risk due to SLR creating an extensive list of problems. It is estimated a sea level rise of 30-50cm would affect 77,018km of shoreline causing $1.4 million in damages per year. 

Figure 2: Table showing the sea level rise for each country in the South Pacific based on the low emission scenario until the turn of the century - Source:  Data consolidated from Pacific Climate Change Science

Figure 3: Mean SLR of various countries and the global mean compared to the mean SLR of the Pacific Islands - Source: Available upon request

Evidently, SLR in the South Pacific is significantly higher than other countries, but The Pacific Islands low elevation exacerbates the problem further. For example, the Marshall Islands has an average elevation of 2.13m, Kiribati has an average elevation of 2m and Tuvalu has average elevation of only 1.83m (I'm taller than that).  SLR and climate change will affect the South Pacific in a number of different ways, including:

• Groundwater intrusions /water shortages
• Extreme weather/storm surges
• Shoreline erosion and degradation
• Environmental change
• Agriculture/food security problems
• Economic costs
• Health impacts

Throughout my following blog posts I will explain the impacts of these implications on the South Pacific Islands. In the meantime, I would highly recommend watching the documentary below!

Video 2: Documentary about Takuu, one of the Mortlock Islands in the South Pacific which is slowly disappearing because of SLR. Filmmaker Briar March offers an insight into the lives of the people whose land is being consumed

Wells

Just keep swimming swimming swimming

"They keep saying that sea levels are rising an' all this. It's nowt to do with the icebergs melting, it's because there's too many fish in it. Get rid of some of the fish and the water will drop. Simple. Basic science" - Karl Pilkington

Figure 1: Cartoon of sea ice melting - Source: Nate Fakes 

If only science was as easy as Karl said it is, I wouldn't be permanently tired (My favourite thing about being at UCL) and everyone would graduate with 1st class honours and a bright future ahead of them. Unfortunately, that isn't case! 

Anyone who knows anything about climate change will know that global sea levels (GSL) are rising at accelerating rates. But they may not know the Pacific islands are the most affected nations in the world by climate change and are considered amongst the most vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR). In my previous blog post, I wrote about the effects of different warming scenarios. In the this blog, I will talk about the actual causes of SLR.

Why are the Pacific islands at such risk?

The pacific nations are under extreme threat due to their low lying nature, particularly the atolls of Micronesia. The islands in Melanesia and Polynesia tend to be higher above sea level due to their volcanic state. The lowest lying islands are Kiribati and Tuvalu, with only 1/3 of the land being < 2 meters above sea level and about 8% being 3 meters above sea level respectively.  The highest elevation Pacific islands are those of the Solomon Islands, many of which are 500 meters in elevation. To put this into perspective, London is 35 meters above sea level, so luckily, I'm safe for the time being.

Figure 2: Map of Pacific islands - Source: The end of the Pacific? Effects of sea level rise on Pacific Island Livelihoods

Figure 3: Graphic showing the average sea level rise experienced by a number of Pacific islands (FSM = Federate states of Micronesia & PNG = Papua New Guinea) - Source: Small Islands adrift 

Recent papers looking at SLR based on different climate change projections, suggest by 2100, the worst-case scenario will display sea level increase by 132cm. Despite this seeming large, numerous other papers make this figure seem quite lowly, by suggesting SLR may be between 150 - 184cm. This would see the Pacific islands under water and places like New York and Mumbai facing extreme flooding.

Causes of sea level rise

Within the past century, the dramatic increase in fossil fuel emissions and other human activities have released a gargantuan amount of heat trapping greenhouse gases E.g. CO₂ into the atmosphere. Consequently, the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ has reached 402ppm, an increase of 120ppm from three centuries ago. These emitted gases absorb the suns radiation, causing the Earth's temperature to rise, concurrently reemitting the radiation, allowing the additional radiation to be absorbed by the ocean. SLR can be attributed to three main issues. 

 Figure 4: Interactive graphic displaying the changes in global carbon dioxide concentration since 1980

Ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica

Greenland  is a gigantic glacier and is considered one of the largest contributors to GSL rise. A number of different causes, such as increased surface melting,  decreasing ice albedo and  increasing surface air temperature have all contributed to the staggering rate of melt in Greenland.

Video 1: Time lapse of the change in ice mass in Greenland since 2003

Temperatures in Greenland have increased by up to 5^°c in recent years, drastically increasing the glacier's propensity to melt. This increased tendency to melt has created more run off, subsequently causing increased sliding at the base of glacier allowing more calving into the ocean.

Video 2: Interactive 360 degree video showing the extent of ice melt in Greenland and explaining the reasoning behind its extreme melt

Studies show that the Greenland melt is accelerating at unprecedented rates, growing from 0.09mm/yr  between 1992-2001 to 0.59mm/yr between 2002 and 2011. This astonishing melt rate is estimated to add 200-300 gigatons of water per year to the ocean (1 gigaton = 264 billion gallons & 500,000 gallons = Olympic size swimming pool!). To contextualise this, melting 365 gigatons of ice would add 1 millimetre of water to GSL.

Video 3: Snippet from the document "Chasing ice" showing the worlds biggest glacier calving event

Antarctica is also quickly adding to GSL, with estimates suggesting it's contributed 0.08mm per year between 1992 and 2001 compared to 0.40mm per year between 2002 and 2011. This has added somewhere in the range of 71-141 gigatons of water per year. 

Melting glaciers and polar ice caps

Glaciers and polar ice caps have contributed between 2.6-2.9mm/yr, for the past 20 years to GSL, placing these small ice masses in the top 3 greatest contributors to SLR. The largest losses are seen in Arctic Canada, Alaska and coastal Greenland, but mountain ranges such as the Andes and Himalayas also add considerably.

Figure 5: Comparison between the contribution of glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica to sea level change  

Mountainous regions have been experiencing intense glacier retreat since the 1850's, producing countless gallons of meltwater, adding to SLR. A prime example of this Glacier National Park in the USA, which could potentially become Glacierless National Park by 2050.

Video 4: Talking about the loss of glacier ice in Glacier National Park and how Glacier's are tracked

The Arctic is thought to have the greatest number of glaciers in the world, amounting to an area of 277,000km² (excluding the main ice sheet).  However a reduction in the albedo feedback loop has caused the arctic to warm at twice the global average, causing glaciers and sea ice to decline. Previously, I wrote about the average global warming experienced in 2016, with figure 5 agreeing and reiterating the severity of warming seen in the arctic. 

Figure 6: Average air temperature between 2000 to 2014 in the Arctic - Source: Nature

Thermosteric expansion

The earth primarily warms due to the accumulation of heat trapping greenhouse gases, yet approximately 90% of this heat is absorbed by the world's oceans, as they act as major anthropogenic sink for climate change. 

Video 5: Explains the science behind thermal expansion and the resulting effects of this added heat

The estimated rate of thermal expansion from 1971 to 2010 are between 4 to 8mm/yr. But most estimates are restricted to the upper section of the ocean between 0-2000m depth due to the ARGO system. Consequently, deep ocean warming is still poorly understood. However studies have begun to show evidence of deep sea warming in the South Atlantic and Pacific.

At the heart of these issues is global warming; producing a combination of problems which dramatically increase the vulnerability of the Pacific Islands, putting them in grave danger of disappearing. To combat this, I believe the world’s largest emitters should take responsibility, by making steps towards reducing their emissions. Hopefully at the upcoming COP23 this will happen! 

Hope everyone has a good week!
Wells