Forecast = Extreme?

"The record-breaking extreme weather events causing chaos across the globe should be a wake-up call" - Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UNFCC

I'm not sure about you, but I always complain about the weather in London, but i've come to realise I don't really have much to complain about. One of the main problems of climate change in the Pacific is extreme weather events and storm surges which result in large-scale humanitarian emergencies. 

Figure 1: Cartoon displaying scientist scrambling to find solutions and adaptations to extreme weather AKA cyclone Pam in the South Pacific - Source: David Pope

What causes extreme weather in the South Pacific?

The main cause of the variable climate and extreme weather in the South Pacific is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phenomenon. ENSO is the scientific term that describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the Pacific. ENSO has three states, two of which are opposites, "El Niño" and "La Niña".  

Video 1: Explains the effects of ENSO and what causes it 

Intensified ENSO due to global warming has affected the weather in the region dramatically resulting several coinciding processes. Tropical cyclones (TC) generate elevated coastal sea levels through storm surges and high waves.  TCs reportedly account for 76% of natural disasters in the region and the number of very intense cyclones is due to increase in the South Pacific. As a result of the low-lying nature of Pacific Islands, these TCs have catastrophic consequences. 

Figure 2: Tracks of the approximately 2,400 tropical cyclones in the Pacific region in the last 60 years - Source: The World Bank

Figure 3: Flow diagram showing how global warming has caused intensified the impacts of ENSO - Source: Walsh, McInnes, McBride., 2012

Droughts in the region are strongly influenced by La Niña.  Many Pacific Islands are reliant on rainwater for domestic and agricultural use. The lack of water is extremely detrimental to the region affecting many aspects of life.

Examples of extreme weather events in the South Pacific 

Cyclone Pam

Cyclone Pam was the one of the strongest TC to form in the south Pacific Ocean with winds of 250 km/h peaking at 320 km/h. The category five storm hit the region extremely hard causing damage to most islands.

Figure 4: Map showing the path of tropical cyclone Pam - Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica

Figure 5: Damage caused to some Pacific islands - Source: The World Bank

Vanuatu is considered the most at risk nations in the world to natural disasters and was destroyed by cyclone Pam. It affected approximately 250,000 people and reduced economic activity by 111% in the country.

Figure 6: Economic cost of cyclone Pam to Vanuatu - Source: The World Bank

Vanuatu received aid from a number of countries, especially Australia who contributed to help rebuild Vanuatu considerably.

Video 2: News clip displaying the damage done by Cyclone Pam in the Pacific 

2011 Pacific drought

In 2011, the South Pacific experienced a severe drought affecting a number of countries across the region, but none more so than Tuvalu. Tuvalu is fully reliant on rainwater for domestic usage and typically receives 200-400mm of rainfall per month (Quite a lot!). 

Figure 7: Location of Tuvalu - Source: Treehugger

Video 3: News clip displaying the problems of drought and water shortage in Tuvalu

Mitigation techniques

A number of different techniques are used to reduce the impacts on Pacific islands, these include:

Figure 8: Summary of coping strategies to disasters and climate changes, with traditional food security, coping and governance techniques proving to be the most successful - Source: Fletcher et al., 2013


Extreme weather events are completely out of the Pacifics control and I feel more should be done to help the nations prepare for these catastrophes. 

Wells

What is more important, the question or the answer?

"The climate bill has finally come due. Who will pay? Right now, it is being paid by the smallest and most vulnerable" - Baron Waqa, Ex-President of Nauru

Climate change has many sceptics across the planet, but one aspect of the issue, which is undeniably true, is global warming. Over the past few years, an amounting pile of evidence has been generated proving the earth is gradually warming.

Figure 1: Cartoon questioning when the world will have a legally binding climate change agreement - Source: KAL

The Paris Agreement

On the 22nd of April 2016 (Which funnily enough happens to be my birthday), a massive step was finally taken towards reducing global warming and its obvious implications, known as the Paris Agreement. It is an UN sanctioned agreement dealing with greenhouse gas emissions, mitigation, adaptation and finance of climate change.

Figure 2: Collection of newspaper headlines highlighting the urgency of vulnerable nations

One major aspects of the accord, revolved around the decision to aspire to reduce global warming to 1.5°^c or 2.0°^c, with the latter being the final agreement. This decision caused great controversy and uproar amongst the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), with them dubbing anything below 2.0°^c “wholly inadequate”, further vexing the up-hill struggle these nations face. AOSIS have been long term advocates of  "1.5 To Stay Alive" movement as it represents the level of global warming beyond which many of AOSIS nations will be vulnerable and overwhelmed by severe climate impacts.

Figure 3: GIF displaying how global temperatures have increased monthly from 1850-2016, culminating with 2016 being the hottest year in history.

Many scientists question the aggressiveness and ambition of the Paris accord, as forecasted global temperatures don't show a prosperous future for many nations.  Figure 3 shows between January and March 2016, the average global temperature change was 1.48°^c almost meeting the global warming threshold of 1.5°^c, providing another stark reminder that we are much closer to 1.5°c threshold than perhaps many people think.

Figure 4: Schematic showing how far we are from the 1.5°^c threshold on different paths - Source (Climate Central)

Now you may question what is the difference between 1.5°^c and 2.0°^c? Let me explain..

While our dearest mother earth is extremely resilient, it is also very fragile. The small increase of 0.5°^c in global mean temperature would have a gargantuan effect on small island states, causing a substantial decrease in water availability, an increase in regional dry spells and severe degradation to virtually all tropical coral reefs due to temperature induced bleaching. Tropical regions would also experience a considerable decrease in crop yields and sea level rise would be unprecedented, with a 2.0°^c scenario showing a predicted sea level rise of 30% greater than a 1.5°^c scenario.

In my own opinion, I believe the Paris agreement was a true landmark climate accord, exceeding the expectations of many, whilst recognising crucial long term climate goals, kick-starting renewed climate bureaucracy and inspiring a generation of climate activists. My following blog posts will talk about the causes of global sea level rise.

As Waqa said, the smallest and most vulnerable have been hit hardest, yet they have shown great resolve in face of adversity. Through the #HaveYourSei campaign, Pacific islanders show how a torpid approach to climate change exacerbates the threat. I feel it's imperative we support the Pacific climate warriors by signing the declaration!

Video 1: Pacific Islanders explaining the #HaveYourSei and why they need strong climate action!

The Pacific have asked the questions; they are now waiting for the world to answer. 

#HaveYourSei

Wells